NFL Week 4
As USA TODAY wrote, “Middle aged men in stripes never looked so good.” At last control will come to the game, and not a moment too soon! My biggest fear was in all the after play skirmishes that someone was going to get hurt, like season or career ending and some teams season was going to swirl down the bowl. The public perception of the “blown call” at the end of the Seahawks-Packers tilt Monday night was only the tip of the iceberg. Its not so much they got the call wrong, they looked incompetent while making the call. Let’s break the play down:
Russell Wilson is in the backfield running for his life trying to buy time to make the throw. In the end zone a free for all begins as players vie for position. It’s a situation like an NBA rebound; the refs are willing to let the players “bang.” They don’t call the fouls. They just don’t. Go back to any NBA finals when Shaquille O’Neil was playing and count how many flagrant elbows to the jaw weren’t called. Sure, Golden Tate’s obvious push in the back was beyond reasonable, but I’ve seen that sort of thing not called on that play before. M.D. Jennings and Tate came down with the ball at the same time. Just like baseball where time goes to the runner, a tie in possession goes to the offense. Now watch Tate and Jennings come down; Jennings was on top, he began to roll, came to a stop and regrouped with his arm firmly over the top of the football. That’s what the nation saw. From that angle it looks like an interception.
However, where I studied physics we were taught things in motion stay in motion unless stopped by an outside force. If Jennings intercepted the ball cleanly he would have held on to it as he rolled off from Tate, Stood up, shown the ball to the world and most likely spiked it 6 inches away from Tate’s ear while shouting something unprintable. He didn’t. Watch the roll. It suggests Tate had a firm grasp. Unfortunately Tate’s arm is between Jennings and the ball. You can’t see it. But Jennings actions reinforce that Tate had at least equal possession.
Here’s where things got really fouled up: One official signaled touchdown while the other signaled touchback (interception). They should have conferenced together and then made call. Both of them new the play would be reviewed. Then after the review the official did a poor job of explaining the rule. Add to it ESPN was unable to produce a camera angle that supports Tate’s possession and Jon Gruden’s knee jerk disgust, and it looks like the Packers were robbed. I’m just saying there’s not enough evidence to say they got the call wrong. I am saying their indecisiveness gave no reason for anyone to have faith they got the call right. Just in case You’re a Packer fan who thinks you were robbed Just remember “9 sacks.”
Thanks to the Monday night debacle we went 2-3 last week bring our season total to 6-10-1. Let’s see how this week will fare. Remember this is a discussion meant for entertainment only. Any losses incurred from relying on the following advice is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, it’s properties or it’s subsidiaries.
49ers (-4) over JETS. Barring a bad performance like the Packers had in the playoffs last year, the 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game. The Jets will be playing golf and wondering why the brought in Tebow if he wasn’t going to play, and what would have been had Revis not been hurt. San Francisco is clearly the better team, even with the disadvantage of being a west coast team playing a 1pm east coast game. 49ers.
CARDINALS (-5 ½) over Dolphins. The defense really is that good. It’s in the Cards.
Patriots (-3 ½) over BILLS. Lets be serious. We’re talking Chan Gailey. Pats get back on track this week.
BUCCANEERS (-1 ½) over Redskins. This is where the RGIII hangover ends. They’re knocknamed the “Bucs” for a reason.
EAGLES (-1) over Giants. Last week was a typical eagle trap. A road trip to the desert after a hard game, and the week before the playing Giants. They almost never do well. It’s the classic NFL trap game. In past years the eagles would jump out to a big lead and blow it. This year the defense is good enough to hold. Eagles
Bears (-3 ½) over COWBOYS. Blues Traveler sang “the hook brings you back.” That half point is known as the hook, because people tend to ignore it. I think the Cowboys win, just not by more than a field goal. Da Bears
Well, the only thing missing from last week’s predictions was a toilet flush at the end of the sheet. 1-5-1 (4-7-1 on the year) is a pretty bleak afternoon! In fact the only thing bleaker that 1-5-1 is facing another week with replacement refs. The new kids on the block are making a travesty to the Sunday past time. Sure the real refs missed some calls. But the calls the real refs made were usually right, and they kept control of the game. These new refs sometimes don’t even make calls. Twice during the Eagles-Ravens game the refs waited to whistle a play dead after an incomplete pass. They weren’t sure if it was a fumble or not. Since turnovers are automatically reviewed this year, the refs would get an extra chance to get it right. Eventually someone’s going to lose their season because they were” earholled “ waiting for a play to be called dead.
You can argue, if you’re a Raven’s fan, that the refs disallowed a fourth quarter game icing touchdown last week. If you’re an Eagles fan you can argue that the receivers were being mugged throughout the game. Clearly the refs weren’t calling defensive pass interference, but offensive interference is a no-no. The league has battled credibility problems for years. These refs don’t help the NFL’s cause. But we’ll make our dogwoods, line up our snacks and hold oour noses while these new guys stink up our Sundays.
Let’s look at some of this week’s games. Remember this is a discussion meant for entertainment only. Any losses incurred from relying on the following advice is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, it’s properties or it’s subsidiaries.
BUCCANEERS (+9) over Cowboys. Don’t be shocked if the Bucs outright win this one. The Cowboys stormed out to an opening day win over the Giants by racking up 147 yards on the ground. Last week against the Seahawks the Pokes laid an egg, partly because they only rushed for 47 yards. Those pesky Bucs on the other hand have allowed only 104 yards on the ground all year. The Pokes have covered only twice in their last 10 NFC tilts and twice in their last 11 games overall. Besides, Wednesday was national talk like a pirate day. Arrrrrrrgh, me Buccaneers!
49ers (-7) over VIKINGS. Those 49ers are a complete team in a league of incomplete teams. You can get away with a one dimensional offense with a killer defense. A good defense isn’t enough. 49ers here
Chiefs (+9) over SAINTS. The saints can’t be THAT bad, can they? Maybe not, but 9 points is a lot to lay on a team that has yet to establish themselves as good. The Chiefs have covered 11 of their last 16, while the Saints have covered only 5 times in their last 17. Trends say KC
Eagles (-3) over CARDINALS. The Eagles are 2-0 on a combined margin of victory of 2 points. Nit a strong endorsement. The Cardinals have been doing it with Defense. The Eagles line is a mess and they turn the ball over too many times. However Kevin Kolb is staring for the Cards and that’s a break for Andy Reid, who knows where the holes in Kolb’s game is. Eagles here.
Packers (-3) over SEAHAWKS. Really? The Packers are good., The Seahawks are, well, getting better. Run with the PACK
That’s how I see it. Good luck
NFL Week 2
At one point last Sunday I had a legitimate shot at 4-1 on the week. Alas as the Steelers faded on Sunday night we wrapped up the week at 3-2. Not bad for opening week. We’re still in the black. We also found out the replacement refs have a much tighter interpretation of holding, while almost anything goes in regards to contact with receivers. I was stunned on Sunday night to hear the NFL contracted to replacements for week 2. They flat out blew an illegal block in the back call the changed the Pittsburgh/Denver game. I was not impressed. Week 2 doesn’t seem to offer hope of anything less volatile.
Remember this is a discussion meant for entertainment only. Any losses incurred from relying on the following advice is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, it’s properties or it’s subsidiaries. Let’s look at some games!
Ravems (-1) over EAGLES. As a general rule I pick games that have to do with our area. There is a strong contingency of Eagles, Giants, Jets and Steeler fans. There’s not a whole lot to like in this game. We found out King Dunlap isn’t that good, and the Eagle offensive line tumbles like dominos if there’s a weak link. Michael Vick isn’t good when he tries to be a conservative pocket passer, and Demico Ryans can flat out play. Read the Philadelphia press and you’d think they lost by 40 points. The good news if you’re an Eagle fan is last week was the kind of game they lost over the past 7 years. That counts for something. The Ravens have not been very good on the road since their Superbowl year, and this is not the shut down dominant defense of ravens lore. The good news for Ravens fans is the Eagles have lost their home opener the past three years, and those teams went on to win the Superbowl (Saints, Packers and Giants). Ray Lewis is still Ray Lewis, and Ed Reed is still Ed Reed. They’ve decided Joe Flacco is the real deal and can carry the team. I’m looking at a low scoring game, edged by the Ravens
Raiders (-1) over DOLPHINS. Raider long snapper Jon Condo left last week’s game with a concussion and all hell broke loose. The Raiders should have won. They also cover ont eh road (7 of their last 9They’ve has time to find a new one. Raiders on South Beach
GIANTS (-7) over Buccaneers. I’m still trying to figure out if the Bucs played over their heads two years ago, or under achieved last year. I think both. The Giants are tough at home. It’s where they usually discover their identity. I’m not sold on Victor Cruz and I still don’t know how they won the Superbowl last year. But I do know the Giants are a better than .500 team and the Bucs are not. G-men in this one.
Vikings (-1) over COLTS. The Vikings went from a 2.5 point dog to a 1 point favorite. Adrian Peterson can still play, and the Colts don’t cover at home. Now that Payton is in Denver that won’t change anytime soon. I think Andrew Luck is the real deal, just not this week. Vikings
Jets (+5) over Steelers. The Steelers should have won a game that got out of control last week, partly because of the refs. They missed a call on a pivotal punt return, and took their time spotting the ball near the goal line that allowed Payton Manning to change the play. It sort of gave the Broncos 5 extra seconds and they maxed out on the opportunity. I saw three unlikely Steeler things last week: Their missing the “put the game away” running back, Big Ben Roethlisberger looks like all of those hits are starting to add up, and James Harrison the undervalued star of the defense. The Jets are a cover machine (20 of their last 28 on grass). Jets this week
Cowboys (-3) over Seahawks. Tony Romo doesn’t screw up the games they’re supposed to win before week 8. Pokes in a romp
PANTEHRS (+1) over Saints. When the NFL handed out suspensions to the Saints coaches over the bounty scandal they knew it was their version of the NCAA’s “ death penalty.” Not to take anything away from RGIII, but no rookie should have looked that good against that defense in his first NFL game. It was a bad game plan that was made up for by a lack of leadership. It’s a lost year in the big easy. Meanwhile the Panthers have lost the last 4 against the Saints. This is a statement game for them
Greetings! We left off last season in the middle of the season. Last November we changed blogging software which to many readers was a blessing. Your prognosticator got off to a horrible start that produced a hole too big to overcome. Call it the internet version of “the mercy rule.”
Week 1 is always an anything goes sort of day, mostly because the line is set off the preseason. Preseason is usually spent giving rookies work under the guise of real games so season ticket holders are forced to buy more than they want. Coaches don’t game plan, preferring not to tip their hand for the upcoming season. Games are decided by vanilla base plays executed by recent college grads whom are going to get cut. Often coaches will be content wth a preseason loss than extend the game into overtime. It’s not reality.
Remember the point spread isn’t a prediction of the game; it’s a prediction of how people bet. A quick refresher: the book maker wants the same amount of money wagered on each team. One wagers $6 to win $5. The extra dollar is called “the vig” or vinegar. At the end of the game the book maker returns the $6 to the winner, plus $5, the winning share. Left over is one dollar from the loser which the book maker keeps. If $12,000 were wagered on each side the house would keep $2000 no matter who wins. The spread, or line, moves to encourage the same amount wagered on each team. For example: the Eagles opened as 6 point favorites against the Browns. Too much money was wagered on Philadelphia, and the line moved 5 points to make the Eagles an 11 point favorite.
What will make this week interesting is there are many large point swings. If someone bought the Eagles as 6 point favorites, then bought the browns at the end of the week as 11 point underdogs, and the Eagles only win by 10 points, That person won both sides of the bet, and the house loses money.
This week will also include replacement refs. The real refs are on strike. Most of these replacements are pretty good college refs. Of course the pro game is much faster, and this preseason we’ve seen nothing short of confusion from the replacements. Here’s your first prediction: the real refs will be back next week.
Rule changes for this year include an automatic replay for turnovers, knee and thigh pads are mandatory, the playoff over time procedure is now good for the regular season, and a crack back block two yards outside the tackle box is illegal. Expect the real refs to have trouble with the last one. Expect the new refs to bullocks it good.
Remember this is a discussion meant for entertainment only. Any losses incurred from relying on the following advice is not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, it’s properties or it’s subsidiaries. Let’s look at some games!
Eagles (-11) over BROWNS. The Eagles blew an NFL record 5 fourth quarter leads last year. The Eagles feel they’ve addressed their defensive short comings, including backs coach Todd Bowles who was brought in to sure up a questionable coaching staff. The Browns are offering a rookie QB and a rookie Tailback against a team that tallied 50 sacks and looks like it got even better. Add to it the fact that the Brownies have covered only one opening day in the past 13 years. It looks like an Eagle kind of day. EAGLES
Bears (-10) over COLTS. The Colts found something out last year; Payton was the team. Now Payton’s in Denver and the Colts ripped up the old team. They let Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday and Pierre Garson walk. At Quarterback is Andrew Luck, who may be pretty good eventually. Remember Payton Manning had a 3 – 13 rookie year on a team with Marshall Faulk and Marvin Harrison. In other words, if you’re in a survivor pool picking against the Colts every week is a good strategy. I sense impending doom. BEARS in a blow out.
Patriots (-5) over TITANS. There’s a new coach in Tennessee. Rookie Jeff Locker is the new QB. Here’s the Titan’s problem: The Patriots are always good. You have to be very good to beat them. Most teams are good enough. The Titans are like most teams. Patriots big!
Steelers ( - 1 ½) over BRONCOS. See above. Even with Payton Manning the Broncos are like everyone else. Steelers.
RAVENS (-6 ½) over the Bengals. The Ravens are like the Steelers and the Patriots. Crabcakes all around!
